Building an Ark for the Anthropocene
By JIM ROBBINS NY TIMES SEPT. 27, 2014 Opinion
Credit Jason Holley
WE are barreling into the Anthropocene, the sixth mass extinction in the history of the planet. A recent study published in the journal Science concluded that the world’s species are disappearing as much as 1,000 times faster than the rate at which species naturally go extinct. It’s a one-two punch — on top of the ecosystems we’ve broken, extreme weather from a changing climate causes even more damage. By 2100, researchers say, one-third to one-half of all Earth’s species could be wiped out.
As a result, efforts to protect species are ramping up as governments, scientists and nonprofit organizations try to build a modern version of Noah’s Ark. The new ark certainly won’t come in the form of a large boat, or even always a place set aside. Instead it is a patchwork quilt of approaches, including assisted migration, seed banks and new preserves and travel corridors based on where species are likely to migrate as seas rise or food sources die out.
The questions are complex. What species do you save? The ones most at risk? Charismatic animals, such as lions or bears or elephants? The ones most likely to survive? The species that hold the most value for us?
One initiative, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services formed in 2012 by the governments of 121 countries, aims to protect and restore species in wild areas and to protect species like bees that carry out valuable ecosystem service functions in the places people live. Some three-quarters of the world’s food production depends primarily on bees.
“We still know very little about what could or should be included in the ark and where,” said Walter Jetz, an ecologist at Yale involved with the project. Species are being wiped out even before we know what they are.
Another project, the EDGE of Existence, run by the Zoological Society of London, seeks to protect the most unusual wildlife at highest risk. These are species that evolved on their own for so long that they are very different from other species. Among the species the project has helped to preserve are the tiny bumblebee bat and the golden-rumped elephant shrew.
While the traditional approach to protecting species is to buy land, preservation of the right habitat can be a moving target, since it’s not known how species will respond to a changing climate.
To complete the maps of where life lives, scientists have enlisted the crowd. A crowdsourcing effort called the Global Biodiversity Information Facility identifies and curates biodiversity data — such as photos of species taken with a smartphone — to show their distribution and then makes the information available online. That is especially helpful to researchers in developing countries with limited budgets. Another project, Lifemapper, at the University of Kansas Biodiversity Institute, uses the data to understand where a species might move as its world changes.
“We know that species don’t persist long in fragmented areas and so we try and reconnect those fragments,” said Stuart L. Pimm, a professor of conservation at Duke University, and head of a nonprofit organization called SavingSpecies. One of his group’s projects in the Colombian Andes identified a forest that contains a carnivorous mammal that some have described as a cross between a house cat and a teddy bear, called an olinguito, new to science. Using crowd-sourced data, “we worked with local conservation groups and helped them buy land, reforest the land and reconnect pieces,” Dr. Pimm says.
Coastal areas, especially, are getting scrutiny. Biologists in Florida, which faces a daunting sea level rise, are working on a plan to set aside land farther inland as a reserve for everything from the MacGillivray’s seaside sparrow to the tiny Key deer.
To thwart something called “coastal squeeze,” a network of “migratory greenways” is envisioned so that species can move on their own away from rising seas to new habitat. “But some are basically trapped,” said Reed F. Noss, a professor of conservation biology at the University of Central Florida who is involved in the effort, and they will most likely need to be picked up and moved. The program has languished, but Amendment 1, on the ballot this November, would provide funding.
One species at risk is the Florida panther. Once highly endangered, with just 20 individuals left, this charismatic animal has come back — some. But a quarter or more of its habitat is predicted to be under some three feet of water by 2100. Males will move on their own, but females will need help because they won’t cross the Caloosahatchee River. Experts hope to create reserves north of the river, and think at some point they will have to move females to new quarters.
Protecting land between reserves is vital. The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative, known as Y2Y, would protect corridors between wild landscapes in the Rockies from Yellowstone National Park to northern Canada, which would allow species to migrate.
RESEARCHERS have also focused on “refugia,” regions around the world that have remained stable during previous swings of the Earth’s climate — and that might be the best bet for the survival of life this time around. A section of the Driftless Area encompassing northeastern Iowa and southern Minnesota, also known as Little Switzerland, has ice beneath some of its ridges. The underground refrigerator means the land never gets above 50 or so degrees and has kept the Pleistocene snail, long thought extinct, from disappearing there. Other species might find refuge there as things get hot.
A roughly 250-acre refugia on the Little Cahaba River in Alabama has been called a botanical lost world, because of its wide range of unusual plants, including eight species found nowhere else. Dr. Noss said these kinds of places should be sought out and protected.
Daniel Janzen, a conservation ecologist at the University of Pennsylvania who is working to protect large tracts in Costa Rica, said that to truly protect biodiversity, a place-based approach must be tailored to the country. A reserve needs to be large, to be resilient against a changing climate, and so needs the support of the people who live with the wild place and will want to protect it. “To survive climate change we need to minimize the other assaults, such as illegal logging and contaminating water,” he said. “Each time you add one of those you make it more sensitive to climate change.”
The Svalbard Global Seed Vault, beneath the permafrost on an island in the Arctic Ocean north of mainland Norway, preserves seeds from food crops. Frozen zoos keep the genetic material from extinct and endangered animals. The Archangel Ancient Tree Archive in Michigan, meanwhile, founded by a family of shade tree growers, has made exact genetic duplicates of some of the largest trees on the planet and planted them in “living libraries” elsewhere — should something befall the original.
In 2008, Connie Barlow, a biologist and conservationist, helped move an endangered conifer tree in Florida north by planting seedlings in cooler regions. Now she is working in the West. “I just assisted in the migration of the alligator juniper in New Mexico by planting seeds in Colorado,” she said. “We have to.
Climate change is happening so fast and trees are the least capable of moving.”
Posted: 29 Sep 2014 10:35 AM PDT
Climate change is expected to result in heightened risk of extinction for many species. Because conservation scientists are just starting to understand this threat, many have concluded that current risk assessment protocols, such as the International ‘Red List’ published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and based on rules established in the 1990s, will fail to identify many species at risk from climate change. However, an international team of researchers, including Professor Resit Akçakaya of Stony Brook University’s Department of Ecology and Evolution, counter that current assessment methods are able to identify such species. Their findings are published in the journal Global Change Biology.
According to the scientific team, this is the first study to quantitatively test the ability of any warning system for identifying species vulnerable to climate change. They tested the performance of the IUCN Red List system, the most commonly used method for identifying species threatened with extinction. They used computer models to project the future abundance of 36 species of salamanders, turtles, tortoises, snakes and lizards under climate change. Next, the team performed “virtual” Red List assessments, following the IUCN guidelines to determine the Red List Status (e.g., “Critically Endangered”) of each species throughout the simulation.
The study, “Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change,” funded by NASA, showed that the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time for species that might go extinct because of climate change.
“Although the study shows that the time between when a species is identified as threatened and when it is goes extinct (without any conservation action) is on average over 60 years, the warning time can be as short as 20 years for many species, especially if information about their populations is limited,” explained Professor Akçakaya. “That may not be enough time for saving a species,” added Akçakaya, who cautioned that whether the warning time provided by the IUCN Red List system is sufficient to prevent extinctions depends on how fast conservation actions can lead to recovery of species….
Jessica C. Stanton, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Richard G. Pearson, H. Resit Akçakaya. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change. Global Change Biology, 2014; DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12721
A Clark’s nutcracker on a limber pine. Credit Richard Perry/The New York Times
SEPT. 18, 2014 Carl Zimmer NY Times
The whitebark pine grows in the high, cold reaches of the Rocky and Sierra Mountains, and some trees, wind-bent and tenacious, manage to thrive for more than a thousand years. Despite its hardiness, the species may not survive much longer. A lethal fungus is decimating the pines, as are voracious mountain pine beetles.
Making matters worse, forest managers have suppressed the fires that are required to stimulate whitebark pine seedlings. Half of all whitebark pines are now dead or dying. In 2012, Canada declared the tree an endangered species, and in the United States it is currently a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act.
Now the tree faces a new threat: a swiftly changing climate. Temperatures are rising, and Forest Service researchers estimate that 97 percent of the whitebark pine’s natural range will disappear from the United States by 2100. Traditionally, conservation biologists have sought to protect endangered plants and animals where they live, creating refuges where species can be shielded from threats like hunting and pollution. But a refuge won’t help the whitebark pine, and so now scientists are pondering a simple but radical new idea: moving the trees to where they will be more comfortable in the future.
It’s called assisted migration, and the debate over its feasibility comes as biologists everywhere begin to reassess their tactics and the impact of climate change on endangered species. “What we were doing wasn’t going to protect them in the long term,” said Bruce Stein, director of the National Wildlife Federation’s climate adaptation program. Dr. Stein and his colleagues recently published a 272-page guide to “climate-smart conservation,” offering advice on how to make ecosystems more resilient…. “I’d say it really is a proof of concept,” said Dr. Aitken. “That leads to the question,
‘Should we move whitebark pine?’ But that’s not a biological question.” Indeed, it’s an ethical question that triggers fierce debate in conservation circles. Critics have warned that assisted migrations like this could prove to be expensive failures. Even if they succeed, the rescued species may become invasive pests in their new habitat. Brendon Larson, an environmental social scientist at the University of Waterloo, and Clare Palmer, an ethicist at Texas A&M University, argue that assisted migration of the whitebark pine poses little risk because the species grows so slowly.
In a paper to be published in the journal Environmental Values, Dr. Larson and Dr. Palmer conclude that the pros outweigh the cons. Whitebark pines prevent soil erosion and, by trapping snow in the winter, help foster a steady water supply for the valleys below them. And over a hundred species of animals, including bears and birds, depend on the whitebark pine for food and shelter. “It just makes sense to try to maintain them as best we can, and assisted migration could well help with that,” Dr. Larson said.
Dr. Tomback doesn’t rule out assisted migration, but she has many doubts. To spread their seeds, whitebark pines depend on birds called Clark’s nutcrackers. If the trees are to survive in the long term, conservation biologists also will have to figure out how to establish the birds in their new range….
A less controversial variation of assisted migration involves moving plants or animals within their existing range.
In a species like the whitebark pine, each population may have evolved adaptations to its local environment, and trees on the southern edge of the range may have genes resistant to heat.
Moving some of the southern trees northward could give northern populations the genetic resources to thrive in a warmer climate.
Influencing the evolution of a wild species in such a way strikes many biologists as a perilous step. But most agree that the choices we’ve left for ourselves are far from ideal. Mark W. Schwartz, an ecologist at the University of California, Davis, said: “You see everybody getting more comfortable with the idea that the future is going to look very different from the past.”