2015 likely to be warmest on record, 2011-2015 warmest five year period



Ocean heat content down to a depth of 700m. Three-month (red), annual (black) and 5-year (blue) averages are shown. Credit: NOAA NCEI

2015 likely to be warmest on record, 2011-2015 warmest five year period

Posted: 25 Nov 2015 08:37 PM PST

The global average surface temperature in 2015 is likely to be the warmest on record and to reach the symbolic and significant milestone of 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era. This is due to a combination of a strong El Niño and human-induced global warming, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The years 2011-2015 have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events — especially heatwaves — influenced by climate change, according to a WMO five-year analysis. “The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern hemisphere spring 2015 the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time. 2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began. It is probable that the 1°C Celsius threshold will be crossed,” said Mr Jarraud. “This is all bad news for the planet. Greenhouse gas emissions, which are causing climate change, can be controlled. We have the knowledge and the tools to act. We have a choice. Future generations will not.“….



Tracking the 2C Limit – October 2015

Posted on 23 November 2015 by Rob Honeycutt

This month GISS data hit a new astounding anomaly of 1.04C over their 1951-1980 baseline period. The previous record was 0.97C back in 2007. It’s possible this figure may get adjusted downward slightly in coming months, but suffice to say this is a big jump in surface temperature.  Clearly this jump is by-and-large a function of the current el Nino churning away in the Pacific, but bear in mind, the surface temperature response to the el Nino is just getting started. There’s generally a 4 to 6 month delay between the el Nino and surface temperature. Given that, we should continue to see sharply increasing surface temperatures through most of the early part of 2016 before things start to settle back again….

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